Here are some overall thoughts, which, may or may not, be relevent.
The S.African team 'color' quota, gives the selectors many headaches. I wouldnt play, Duminy or Bavuma. Van Zyl is being played in the wrong spot, because, of selection issues.
Many S.African players, have mental scaring, from India. Elgar, looked much better. Du Plessis, gets one last chance, or is dropped for Van Zyl.
ABd is pure class. Steyn got the key wkts on Day 1, and Eng would have scored 50-100 more, if he hadnt played. Morkel bowled v good, Piedt got a 5 for, and seems better than Tahir.
The pitch was 6-8 mph slower than usual. Which didnt help SA bowlers .. but, also didnt really help Eng.
S.Africa fielded poorly, Amla is not a captain .. he is anonymous on the field, and has poor form to contend with, let alone all the media, that he is not a natural for.
Eng played v well, and look on the up. With Anderson back, probably for Woakes, I would be happy to back them.
My S.African team for CT would be :
Elgar
Cook
Amla
Abd
De Cock
Du Plessis
Rouseau
Abbott
Piedt
Rabada
Morkel
But, that doesnt fit the quota .. so, wont happen.
Betting markets loved S.Africa, for most of Days 1 -3, then, sorta woke up.
I hope they love them again in CT .. for me, they are a maximum punish (at wrong odds).
Thx for all the postive feedback on twitter and her. Its nice, but, as a v wise old bookie once
told me, 'There no praise like that u can put in your back pocket'.
Its true .. manage your own positions, and pay your own bills. Nothing else matters.
Tuesday 29 December 2015
Monday 28 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 4 Trading
Book brought forward :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Ok, what have we seen so far ?
IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.
A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.
England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.
Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.
Current Prices
S.Africa 15
England 1.47
Draw 3.9
I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.
Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.
In the 4 hrs before the game, the Eng price has gone from 1.47, to 1.42 and back to 1.49.
Someone, taking it for a walk ...
Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.47
Draw 4.8
New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.
Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.
Trade - lay 3000/750 draw
Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6
SA 5.5
Eng 1.47
Draw 7.4
Trade - back draw 3000/460
Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330
Eng crash to 1.37 ?
Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000
Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.
lead 350-6
15 mins to lunch
SA 12
Eng 1.37
Draw 5.1
Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.37
Draw 6
Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.
Lunch
book
SA +£2390
Eng +£5740
Draw +£10900
Equity +£6400
Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.
Eng lead 404-8
SA 16
Eng 1.36
Draw 4.8
Wkt - Broad 404-9
SA 12
Eng 1.35
Draw 5.3
Eng 416 all out ..net.
SA 9.4
Eng 1.35
Draw 6.6
370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.
SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.
SA 2-0
Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7
Trade back Eng 2000-4000
Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.
SA 5
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.6
Mkt going into meltdown
SA 49-0
SA 3.55
Eng 1.66
Draw 7
hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.
Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1
SA 5.3
Eng 1.42
Draw 8.4
Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.
SA 5
Eng 1.45
Draw 8.8
Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.
Book.
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12
SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..
Eng 1.66
Draw 12 friendless .. rightly
Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..
Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..
Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2
SA 5.6
Eng 1.4
Draw 7.8
Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose
cant keep up, 93-3
SA 12
Eng 1.28
Draw 7
Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.
Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.
SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..
all,about ABd and Du plessis ..
SA 7.6
Eng 1.31
Draw 9.2
looks right ..
SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.
batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.
Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4
Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.
SA 16
Eng 1.21
Draw 8
Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.
Steyn comes in as night watchman
Final Book :
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.
Still ..
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Ok, what have we seen so far ?
IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.
A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.
England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.
Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.
Current Prices
S.Africa 15
England 1.47
Draw 3.9
I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.
Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.
Someone, taking it for a walk ...
Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.47
Draw 4.8
New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.
Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.
Trade - lay 3000/750 draw
Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6
SA 5.5
Eng 1.47
Draw 7.4
Trade - back draw 3000/460
Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330
Eng crash to 1.37 ?
Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000
Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.
lead 350-6
15 mins to lunch
SA 12
Eng 1.37
Draw 5.1
Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.37
Draw 6
Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.
Lunch
book
SA +£2390
Eng +£5740
Draw +£10900
Equity +£6400
Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.
Eng lead 404-8
SA 16
Eng 1.36
Draw 4.8
Wkt - Broad 404-9
SA 12
Eng 1.35
Draw 5.3
Eng 416 all out ..net.
SA 9.4
Eng 1.35
Draw 6.6
370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.
SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.
SA 2-0
Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7
Trade back Eng 2000-4000
Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.
SA 5
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.6
Mkt going into meltdown
SA 49-0
SA 3.55
Eng 1.66
Draw 7
hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.
Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1
SA 5.3
Eng 1.42
Draw 8.4
Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.
SA 5
Eng 1.45
Draw 8.8
Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.
Book.
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12
SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..
Eng 1.66
Draw 12 friendless .. rightly
Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..
Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..
Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2
SA 5.6
Eng 1.4
Draw 7.8
Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose
cant keep up, 93-3
SA 12
Eng 1.28
Draw 7
Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.
Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.
SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..
all,about ABd and Du plessis ..
SA 7.6
Eng 1.31
Draw 9.2
looks right ..
SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.
batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.
Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4
Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.
SA 16
Eng 1.21
Draw 8
Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.
Steyn comes in as night watchman
Final Book :
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.
Still ..
Sunday 27 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 3 Trading
Prices at COP (Close of Play)
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
6am Local .. Day 3
I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.
Mkt now :
S.Africa 2.36
England 2.50
Draw 5.7
At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200
Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :
Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500
Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day
SA 2.56
Eng 2.00
Draw 8
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Wkt - Duminy 152-6
Sa 3.1
Eng 1.8
Draw 8
Wkt - Abbot 156-7
SA 3
Eng 1.72
Draw 9.4
All good -- at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.
Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.
SA 3.45
Eng1.69
Draw 8.2
Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up
current book
SA win +£3100
Eng win +£7200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £3700
Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.
SA 200-7
SA 2.58
Eng 2.1
Draw 7.2
SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.
Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8
SA 2.84
Eng 1.81
Draw 9
SA 214 all out
Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.
Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.
SA 3.3
Eng 1.64
Draw 11 ????? ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.
Equity in book, £5200
England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.
Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.
SA .6
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.1
Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102
SA 3.4
Eng 1.75
Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.
Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.
Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.
(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)
Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.
SA 3.55
Eng 1.7
Draw 7.2
Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.
Book now :
SA win +£2100
Eng win +£6200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £4900
SA 3.7
Eng 1.68
Draw 7
Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.
Drinks final session
Eng 111-2 lead by 200
SA 10
Eng 1.5
Draw 4.1
10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3
Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..
The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :
Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???
Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???
Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.
COP
Eng lead by 261-3.
Steyn injured.
2 days left ..
SA 13.5
Eng 1.49
Draw 3.85
A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.
Book :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.
///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.
wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
Lets think about this : S.Africa are 166 behind, with 6 wkts left. Run lines make them likely to get 310.
There are 298 overs left in game, time allowing. Weather seems ok.
If Eng go back in to bat, say, an hr after lunch, their run line will prob be about 275 (maybe less).
Its clear, Draw at 5.0 is barking, but so, is SA at 2.2.
If I wasn't constraining my exposure to £20k, I would lay another chunk of the draw.
I make the betting, something like :
S.Africa 2.5
England 2.4
Draw 8,0
So, have not changed the basic flavour of my book, if anything, added to Eng.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
6am Local .. Day 3
I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.
Mkt now :
S.Africa 2.36
England 2.50
Draw 5.7
At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200
Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :
Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500
Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day
SA 2.56
Eng 2.00
Draw 8
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Wkt - Duminy 152-6
Sa 3.1
Eng 1.8
Draw 8
Wkt - Abbot 156-7
SA 3
Eng 1.72
Draw 9.4
All good -- at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.
Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.
SA 3.45
Eng1.69
Draw 8.2
Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up
current book
SA win +£3100
Eng win +£7200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £3700
Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.
SA 200-7
SA 2.58
Eng 2.1
Draw 7.2
SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.
Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8
SA 2.84
Eng 1.81
Draw 9
SA 214 all out
Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.
Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.
SA 3.3
Eng 1.64
Draw 11 ????? ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.
Equity in book, £5200
England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.
Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.
SA .6
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.1
Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102
SA 3.4
Eng 1.75
Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.
Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.
Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.
(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)
Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.
SA 3.55
Eng 1.7
Draw 7.2
Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.
Book now :
SA win +£2100
Eng win +£6200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £4900
SA 3.7
Eng 1.68
Draw 7
Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.
Drinks final session
Eng 111-2 lead by 200
SA 10
Eng 1.5
Draw 4.1
10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3
Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..
The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :
Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???
Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???
Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.
COP
Eng lead by 261-3.
Steyn injured.
2 days left ..
SA 13.5
Eng 1.49
Draw 3.85
A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.
Book :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.
///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.
wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.
Saturday 26 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 2 Trading
Its not much fun, when u compose posts, and the app u are using finds a way to either lose them or garble them so badly, they are unreadable.
That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop. (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)
So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.
Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.
The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.
Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.
Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.7
My current book .
S.Africa -£3400
England +£24000
Draw -£12000
Equity +£100
This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.
I should be able to update the blog during breaks.
//
Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.
Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.
Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.
Eng 196-5
S.Africa 2.14
England 4.5
Draw 3.1
Mkt loves S.Afr
Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.
Drinks Eng 232-5
S.Africa 2.56
England 3.75
Draw 2.82
Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure
//
Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6
SA 2.32
Eng 4.1
Draw 3
will updates positions at lunch
253-7
SA 1.87
Eng 4.6
Draw 3.7
253-8
SA 1.66
Eng 5.5
Draw 4.4
Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.
At the inngs change,
S.Africa 1.73
England 4.6
Draw 4.7
S.Africa -£4700
England £21600
Draw -£12000
Equity -£250
At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.
England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.
Run line for s.africa about 380.
This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.
Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.
Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.
SA 1.77
Eng 4.3
Draw 4.8
Wkt -- Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1
SA 1.98
Eng 3.2
Draw 5
Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng
Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2
Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.78
Draw 5.4
Trade - Back SA 2400/2000
SA 22-2
Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000
Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in
Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.
Tea S.Africa 55-2
S.Africa 1.82
England 4.2
Draw 4:5
book
S.Africa -£300
England +£15200
draw -£12000
Equity £550
Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.
SA 103-3
SA 1.94
Eng 3.45
Draw 5
Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa
Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA
Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4
SA 2.26
Eng 2.4
Draw 6.6
Trade -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...
COP
SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.
That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop. (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)
So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.
Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.
The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.
Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.
Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.7
My current book .
S.Africa -£3400
England +£24000
Draw -£12000
Equity +£100
This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.
I should be able to update the blog during breaks.
//
Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.
Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.
Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.
Eng 196-5
S.Africa 2.14
England 4.5
Draw 3.1
Mkt loves S.Afr
Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.
Drinks Eng 232-5
S.Africa 2.56
England 3.75
Draw 2.82
Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure
//
Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6
SA 2.32
Eng 4.1
Draw 3
will updates positions at lunch
253-7
SA 1.87
Eng 4.6
Draw 3.7
253-8
SA 1.66
Eng 5.5
Draw 4.4
Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.
At the inngs change,
S.Africa 1.73
England 4.6
Draw 4.7
S.Africa -£4700
England £21600
Draw -£12000
Equity -£250
At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.
England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.
Run line for s.africa about 380.
This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.
Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.
Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.
SA 1.77
Eng 4.3
Draw 4.8
Wkt -- Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1
SA 1.98
Eng 3.2
Draw 5
Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng
Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2
Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.78
Draw 5.4
Trade - Back SA 2400/2000
SA 22-2
Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000
Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in
Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.
Tea S.Africa 55-2
S.Africa 1.82
England 4.2
Draw 4:5
book
S.Africa -£300
England +£15200
draw -£12000
Equity £550
Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.
SA 103-3
SA 1.94
Eng 3.45
Draw 5
Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa
Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA
Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4
SA 2.26
Eng 2.4
Draw 6.6
Trade -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...
COP
SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 1 Trading
So, here is my book from last night :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices on Eve of test
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
During the night, Draw eased to 3.5, but morning drizzle/rain, looks like affecting the start.
S.Africa 2.30
Eng 4.0
Draw 3.15
Think they will get a deal of play in, and it's a massive toss to win.
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices on Eve of test
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
During the night, Draw eased to 3.5, but morning drizzle/rain, looks like affecting the start.
S.Africa 2.30
Eng 4.0
Draw 3.15
Think they will get a deal of play in, and it's a massive toss to win.
Against draw, for max.
Cant quite understand how a pitch that has given 8 results, in the last 8 games, has the draw this low :
Toss pushed back 30 mins.
Have v lopsided book ..
Eng win Crown Jewels, S.Africa lose small, Draw lose a fortune.
S.Africa 2.16
Eng 3.75
Draw 3.65
S.Africa win the toss and field.
S.Africa 2.08
Eng 3.75
Draw 3.9
Still with England .. Brightening up, nope ball doesn't swing too much.
Mkt aggressively against SA early, pushing them to 2.38 .. Then cook edges one.
SA 1.86
Eng 4.2
Draw 4.3
Ball doing plenty .. At least for Steyn.
//
IPad keeps dropping posts - which is giving me mega-tilt.
Early lunch taken, after lightening, then rain.
Eng 12-1
S.Africa 2.1
Eng 5.1
Draw 3.0
Still against draw ..
Eng 55-3 when more light drizzle stops play. Getting a little dark at times, so, u wonder how bad light Will impact the game.
This piece of crap iPad app driving me crazy .. Have basically same position, going for England, and against draw. S.Africa lose a little bit more than before .. I think 1.6 short enuf.
// Tea -Eng 121-3 ..
S.Africa 2.2
England 4
Draw 3.35
Same book, and would back end more, if I wasn't in balls deep.
Became impossible to update this, via Ipad, and I wont even try for the next 4 days.
My book was good, then not so good, and is now v v average, with all the value gone, as the draw has crashed to below levels I think reasonable.
At COP ..Eng 179-4 .. from a v tedious 65 overs. Play starts early tomorrow, and weather looks ok. Pitch may speed up.
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.64
Currently, have a nothing book, with v little equity. Am determined to win on England, and have both the Draw and S.Africa as losers .. the Draw. for the biggest liability.
Monday 21 December 2015
1st Test .. S.Africa v England - Durban - Boxing Day (Pre-Game Thread)
Its been a while since the English were here .. 2011 I think, when the local currency was a tad stronger (11 Rand to the Pound .. its now 22 ... how times flies).
Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.
A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :
S.Africa -£7000 (laid 2.2 avg)
Eng + £5500 (backed 3.5 avg)
Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.44 (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)
Eng 3.2
Draw 3.65
Current Equity + £350 (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)
Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes. So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)
I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.
Above posted, 5 days before game.
Some recent Test 'form' :
In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats
In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10
In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6
Total .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16
Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.
//////
Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.
Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.
Currently, v similar to last night :
S.Africa -£8100
Eng + £7400
Draw +£5100
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.
Eng 3.3
Draw 3.55
Current Equity + £300
//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful
So, this is not good, at least for my position.
S,Africa 2.22 in a thin mkt
England 3.75
Draw 3.45
Current Equity -£300
The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.
Will wait ..
////
Test starts on Sat .. hope for some early disruptions .. thou, u should be aware, the last 8 tests at the ground have produced results, and .. in general, there are less draws in S.Africa, than other major centres. - Centurion and Johannesburg have only had 1 draw each, out of 19 Tests in the last 10 yrs.
The pitch looks pretty benign ..
On the strength of the above, plus some belief the start will see some poor weather, I added to my draw bias.
S.Africa -£10800
Eng + £9000
Draw +£8000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £500
This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.
//
Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :
In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.
This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.
I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.
I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.
What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.
I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.
Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.
Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.
My bank for the game, is £20k.
Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.
////
Evening, 24th
Anderson confirmed out.
Weather picture. arguably, improved.
I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.
S.Africa -£8800
Eng + £7700
Draw +£6000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.3 ..
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.5
Current Equity + £580
////
Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong ..
Current equity is + 110
///
Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.
Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..
S.Africa -£7800
Eng + £8800
Draw +£4000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??
Eng 4.0 .. v weak ..
Draw 2.74
Current Equity + £560 .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.
England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :
.
Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.
A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :
S.Africa -£7000 (laid 2.2 avg)
Eng + £5500 (backed 3.5 avg)
Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.44 (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)
Eng 3.2
Draw 3.65
Current Equity + £350 (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)
Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes. So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)
I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.
Above posted, 5 days before game.
Some recent Test 'form' :
In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats
In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10
In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6
Total .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16
Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.
//////
Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.
Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.
Currently, v similar to last night :
S.Africa -£8100
Eng + £7400
Draw +£5100
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.
Eng 3.3
Draw 3.55
Current Equity + £300
//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful
So, this is not good, at least for my position.
S,Africa 2.22 in a thin mkt
England 3.75
Draw 3.45
Current Equity -£300
The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.
Will wait ..
////
Source : Cricinfo
Source : bbctms twitter
S.Africa -£10800
Eng + £9000
Draw +£8000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £500
This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.
//
Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :
In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.
This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.
I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.
I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.
What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.
I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.
Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.
Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.
My bank for the game, is £20k.
Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.
////
Evening, 24th
Anderson confirmed out.
Weather picture. arguably, improved.
I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.
S.Africa -£8800
Eng + £7700
Draw +£6000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.3 ..
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.5
Current Equity + £580
////
Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong ..
Current equity is + 110
///
Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.
Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..
S.Africa -£7800
Eng + £8800
Draw +£4000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??
Eng 4.0 .. v weak ..
Draw 2.74
Current Equity + £560 .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.
England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :
I am laying Draw at 2.9 .. this price is just wrong (IMHO), will make it level.
Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.
Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.
Odd tinge of green in the pitch .. happy to lay draw at these levels, thou nagging worry, who is taking these prices ??
Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.
Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.
Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.46
Eng 4.0
Draw 2.88
Current Equity + £480
Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.
The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.
I have some orders left open, in various places.
///
Xmas Day eve ..
Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :
Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.
Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.
Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.
Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.46
Eng 4.0
Draw 2.88
Current Equity + £480
Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.
The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.
I have some orders left open, in various places.
///
Xmas Day eve ..
Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :
Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.
Saturday 19 December 2015
People are stupid ..
I have spent the last 3 days playing golf, and this was gonna be a nice golf ramble, with assorted pics of courses where, labourers must have spent many laborious hours, cutting a railway track into a mountain.
The course now has a dis-used railway line, overlooking it .. and the labourers, must literally be turning in their grave ..
((Ok, I cant resist the pics, of both the railway line, and the buck on my local course, but that's the end of the digression)).
Have been reading a few fora, where people have been discussing how hard sports betting is, how thin edges are, and basically, ya da, ya da, woe is me.
Then, I come across this enterprising individual in the US, who installed self-deleting malware, on state lottery computers, so, it would pick certain combinations of numbers .. which, obviously, he had the winning tickets for.
http://calvinayre.com/2015/12/19/business/us-lottery-industry-under-fire-multi-state-jackpot-scam/
I admire the guys ingenuity .. sure, its illegal, but, really, when people are so stupid, as to not do due-diligence etc .. then, I can get past it. Lotteries are a tax on the poor anyway ..
The course now has a dis-used railway line, overlooking it .. and the labourers, must literally be turning in their grave ..
((Ok, I cant resist the pics, of both the railway line, and the buck on my local course, but that's the end of the digression)).
Have been reading a few fora, where people have been discussing how hard sports betting is, how thin edges are, and basically, ya da, ya da, woe is me.
Then, I come across this enterprising individual in the US, who installed self-deleting malware, on state lottery computers, so, it would pick certain combinations of numbers .. which, obviously, he had the winning tickets for.
http://calvinayre.com/2015/12/19/business/us-lottery-industry-under-fire-multi-state-jackpot-scam/
I admire the guys ingenuity .. sure, its illegal, but, really, when people are so stupid, as to not do due-diligence etc .. then, I can get past it. Lotteries are a tax on the poor anyway ..
Wednesday 16 December 2015
Cricket and other thoughts
So, the finals of the domestic T20 in South Africa, went exactly as predicted in the previous post, making me .. something like, 28-3 for the tourny, when I had a bet.
Thats a pretty good strike rate .. and highlights the benefits of watching specific players, in specific competitions.
Over confidence can be a v detrimental trait in gamblers, thou, it also sometimes, has its uses .. I am wary, my good run cannot last, but, its been a v decent trot.
I am currently reading a very interesting book, called Trading Bases, which, is just about, one of the best gambling 'model' books, I have ever read.
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Fortune-Betting-Baseball-ebook/dp/B008BM4NRK
Its all about a former Wall Street trader, who, got hit by an ambulance, lost his trading job, and to cure the boredom from being stuck in a chair, modelled baseball, with the intention of placing bets, on his model.
I cant recommend it enough .. it has many insights.
Some points he makes, re both the Financial markets/Las vegas/Sports betting/Betting to a bank-roll, are all spot-on.
I am not sure if he started a fund etc .. but, would be willing to commit some money to it, if he did.
Thats a pretty good strike rate .. and highlights the benefits of watching specific players, in specific competitions.
I am currently reading a very interesting book, called Trading Bases, which, is just about, one of the best gambling 'model' books, I have ever read.
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Fortune-Betting-Baseball-ebook/dp/B008BM4NRK
Its all about a former Wall Street trader, who, got hit by an ambulance, lost his trading job, and to cure the boredom from being stuck in a chair, modelled baseball, with the intention of placing bets, on his model.
I cant recommend it enough .. it has many insights.
Some points he makes, re both the Financial markets/Las vegas/Sports betting/Betting to a bank-roll, are all spot-on.
I am not sure if he started a fund etc .. but, would be willing to commit some money to it, if he did.
Tuesday 8 December 2015
This n that .. Golf stuff mostly
So, all year I have been banging on about my golf game.
It was a definite goal, to shoot a 90, on a proper course, and although I had sorta done it, never really convincingly, and never, with such flair.
I am bang in form. This isn't really a factor, but, maybe it helps u mentally, when sizing what shot to make/play .. (On a side note, its amazing how often when u tip something on twitter, if it wins, u hear nothing, but, if it loses, the world comes down on u) .. social media I guess.
Anyway, on my local 72 par course, I was level par after 9 holes, making 5 pars, 2 bogeys, and 2 birdies. One of the birdies, was on the stroke 2 hole - seriously hard, needing a 200 yard drive, followed by a 200 yard 3 Wood. I knocked the 3 wood to 8 feet, and made the putt.
This was real golf .. and maybe I tensed up, as the back 9 wasn't so good, finishing with a 84. Questions were asked again, and the handicap committee were not impressed, cutting me immediately to a 19.
The local T20 tournament in South Africa, has been ultra high variance .. your basic traders dream, with favs changing fairly often during the course of the game. I have tipped v well, and my confidence is sky high.
The semi is tomorrow in Durban .. the local side, with KP back, playing the Cobras. They played each other last week, and the Dolphins won .. but Levi got out cheaply .. as he often seems to do, when I watch him. I like the Dolphins to win the semi, but, Titans to win the final on Saturday.
S.Africa played poorly in India, and am not sure they are heading down the right road .. I think England are decent value, for the up-coming test series .. especially if Steyn isnt fit.
It was a definite goal, to shoot a 90, on a proper course, and although I had sorta done it, never really convincingly, and never, with such flair.
I am bang in form. This isn't really a factor, but, maybe it helps u mentally, when sizing what shot to make/play .. (On a side note, its amazing how often when u tip something on twitter, if it wins, u hear nothing, but, if it loses, the world comes down on u) .. social media I guess.
Anyway, on my local 72 par course, I was level par after 9 holes, making 5 pars, 2 bogeys, and 2 birdies. One of the birdies, was on the stroke 2 hole - seriously hard, needing a 200 yard drive, followed by a 200 yard 3 Wood. I knocked the 3 wood to 8 feet, and made the putt.
This was real golf .. and maybe I tensed up, as the back 9 wasn't so good, finishing with a 84. Questions were asked again, and the handicap committee were not impressed, cutting me immediately to a 19.
The local T20 tournament in South Africa, has been ultra high variance .. your basic traders dream, with favs changing fairly often during the course of the game. I have tipped v well, and my confidence is sky high.
The semi is tomorrow in Durban .. the local side, with KP back, playing the Cobras. They played each other last week, and the Dolphins won .. but Levi got out cheaply .. as he often seems to do, when I watch him. I like the Dolphins to win the semi, but, Titans to win the final on Saturday.
S.Africa played poorly in India, and am not sure they are heading down the right road .. I think England are decent value, for the up-coming test series .. especially if Steyn isnt fit.
Thursday 3 December 2015
Tiger Woods at 40
Age catches up with us all .. thou, I must admit at times, I look back at games I traded only 5 yrs ago, and it feels like 20 yrs ago.
Tiger Woods will be 40, on Dec 30, and I must admit to being sorry, his back injuries appear to have put an end to his career.
In his day, he was just the best .. and the best, by quite a long way.
I only watched him play Live once, and, he seemed a surly soul, never saying a word. His golf thou, was sublime .. and I suppose, we can forgive.
Here is a compilation, of his best shots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2AvRfxgpL4
Tiger Woods will be 40, on Dec 30, and I must admit to being sorry, his back injuries appear to have put an end to his career.
In his day, he was just the best .. and the best, by quite a long way.
I only watched him play Live once, and, he seemed a surly soul, never saying a word. His golf thou, was sublime .. and I suppose, we can forgive.
Here is a compilation, of his best shots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2AvRfxgpL4
Tuesday 1 December 2015
Betfair in the US
The Daily Racing Form .. an online horse-racing portal in the US, which has a large following, has just posted this :
http://www.drf.com/news/betfair-gains-first-exchange-wagering-license-us
This is a very interesting development, which has taken a great deal of time to have come about.
Its debatable, whether the various lobbyists will allow it to see light of day, but, it shows that the investment Betfair have continued to pour into the US, might finally have something to show for it.
I would take the under, on Betfair opening in March .. i.e., I dont think its likely, but, would like to be pleasantly surprised.
One to keep an eye on.
http://www.drf.com/news/betfair-gains-first-exchange-wagering-license-us
This is a very interesting development, which has taken a great deal of time to have come about.
Its debatable, whether the various lobbyists will allow it to see light of day, but, it shows that the investment Betfair have continued to pour into the US, might finally have something to show for it.
I would take the under, on Betfair opening in March .. i.e., I dont think its likely, but, would like to be pleasantly surprised.
One to keep an eye on.
Tuesday 24 November 2015
Golf Highlights and Lowlights
So, at the start of the Year, it was definitely a goal .. really, the Number 1 goal, to break 90 on a proper golf course.
This isn't hard for mortals, with half-decent co-ordination/practise .. and I put in some serious effort, and finally cracked it, a few weeks ago, and have since recorded a 87 and 88.
My driving distance is improving, and am ashamed to say, today I hit a caddie (pretty much in my line), 210 yards away. He was ok, - a glancing blow on his forehead, but, I still wasn't v happy, and we did shout 'FORE' etc.
Needless injury is something no-one wants, and I will probably wait longer in future, for the slow-buggers in front, to get out of even, unrealistic range.
Anyway, am now a 19 handicap .. maybe 15 is a target to get down to, next yr.
This isn't hard for mortals, with half-decent co-ordination/practise .. and I put in some serious effort, and finally cracked it, a few weeks ago, and have since recorded a 87 and 88.
My driving distance is improving, and am ashamed to say, today I hit a caddie (pretty much in my line), 210 yards away. He was ok, - a glancing blow on his forehead, but, I still wasn't v happy, and we did shout 'FORE' etc.
Needless injury is something no-one wants, and I will probably wait longer in future, for the slow-buggers in front, to get out of even, unrealistic range.
Anyway, am now a 19 handicap .. maybe 15 is a target to get down to, next yr.
Sunday 22 November 2015
Great memories ..
World news is v depressing right now, with atrocious things happening, it seems, just about everywhere.
I am not a political scientist, but wilfully taking someone elses life, just because they don't follow the same religion as u, looks like something, the world as a whole, will fight against.
Its hard to protect soft targets, and its easy to speculate, there will be more killing. Prayers go out, to everyone affected.
Thinking about life cut too short, it was a great sadness that Jonah Lomu, succumbed to his health problems.
I was lucky enough to watch a great deal of his career, and was even at THE match in Cape Town, when he ran over Mike Catt. I have rarely seen such dominance. Looking at his tributes, he appears to have been a great father, and lived his life, purposefully.
Its one of the greatest gifts of life, to have children - those that are lucky enough, know the joy of parenthood. As I get older, I really wish more people could lead happy lives, but, this week has seen, the ideologies of a few, make that less possible.
I am not a political scientist, but wilfully taking someone elses life, just because they don't follow the same religion as u, looks like something, the world as a whole, will fight against.
Its hard to protect soft targets, and its easy to speculate, there will be more killing. Prayers go out, to everyone affected.
Thinking about life cut too short, it was a great sadness that Jonah Lomu, succumbed to his health problems.
I was lucky enough to watch a great deal of his career, and was even at THE match in Cape Town, when he ran over Mike Catt. I have rarely seen such dominance. Looking at his tributes, he appears to have been a great father, and lived his life, purposefully.
Its one of the greatest gifts of life, to have children - those that are lucky enough, know the joy of parenthood. As I get older, I really wish more people could lead happy lives, but, this week has seen, the ideologies of a few, make that less possible.
Monday 16 November 2015
They dont want u to win ...
Its a problem.
If u are good at gambling, it seems, just about everywhere u want to ply your trade, has discovered bean-counters, who have obviously dissected each business revenue source, and recommended changes, to make more revenue/profit.
We have long known Betfair have Premium Charge, which some days, I can understand, as the markets are 'wrong', and u should be charged a premium for access to the idiots.
Casinos discourage Advantage Players, be they card counters, or player point whores.
Now, Poker Stars, have radically changed the elite poker rake-back system .. Super Nova Elite.
Poker has become far harder to beat online, and many pro players, now, are basically flat on the game, but, make money, getting rake-back, from the many thousands of hands they play each month.
(This can be real money .. they previously changed terms of play, from 12 tables max, to 24 tables max SIMULTANEOUS play, and used to offer bonuses of about $100k a yr, if u played for 12 hrs a day)
This will change from next yr (which is v controversial, as, to get to a certain rake-back status, u have to invest many hundreds of hours play, and cutting it off, with less than 3 mths notice, is seen by some, as breaking a contract).
Poker Stars say, they are changing the poker landscape, to make it easier for the recreational player .. and thus harder, for the professional, who they are trying to discourage. I can understand their logic .. player acquisition/player retention are key buzzwords, and certainly, public companies, owe their shareholders more than they do to professional gamblers .. but, u do need a base, for people to play with/against.
If companies like Betfair/poker Stars make it too hard for market makers/pro players, overall liquidity has to fall .. their has to be a balance.
Amaya, the holding company of Poker Stars, dropped 33% in the last few days ..
If u are good at gambling, it seems, just about everywhere u want to ply your trade, has discovered bean-counters, who have obviously dissected each business revenue source, and recommended changes, to make more revenue/profit.
We have long known Betfair have Premium Charge, which some days, I can understand, as the markets are 'wrong', and u should be charged a premium for access to the idiots.
Casinos discourage Advantage Players, be they card counters, or player point whores.
Now, Poker Stars, have radically changed the elite poker rake-back system .. Super Nova Elite.
Poker has become far harder to beat online, and many pro players, now, are basically flat on the game, but, make money, getting rake-back, from the many thousands of hands they play each month.
(This can be real money .. they previously changed terms of play, from 12 tables max, to 24 tables max SIMULTANEOUS play, and used to offer bonuses of about $100k a yr, if u played for 12 hrs a day)
This will change from next yr (which is v controversial, as, to get to a certain rake-back status, u have to invest many hundreds of hours play, and cutting it off, with less than 3 mths notice, is seen by some, as breaking a contract).
Poker Stars say, they are changing the poker landscape, to make it easier for the recreational player .. and thus harder, for the professional, who they are trying to discourage. I can understand their logic .. player acquisition/player retention are key buzzwords, and certainly, public companies, owe their shareholders more than they do to professional gamblers .. but, u do need a base, for people to play with/against.
If companies like Betfair/poker Stars make it too hard for market makers/pro players, overall liquidity has to fall .. their has to be a balance.
Amaya, the holding company of Poker Stars, dropped 33% in the last few days ..
Friday 13 November 2015
Pray for Rain
So, I am travelling thru the interior of South Africa .. and its v different.
There is dust everywhere, vast open tracts of land, with little sign of life. save for sheep and cattle, and its v apparent, they are in desperate need of serious rain.
Passing thru a small town, 11am, on a weekday, there was a congregation of about 200 people, outside a large farm goods store. I assumed, there must be an auction etc, of farming vehicles - but, on asking, was told, it was a prayer meeting, dedicated to the rain gods.
I recall reading recently, about a small african country, setting aside a national day of prayer, dedicated to asking for the Good lord, to help the countries leaders, decide etc .. but, this seemed more devout.
I hope it helps .. but, a few hours later, the sun is still beating down.
There is dust everywhere, vast open tracts of land, with little sign of life. save for sheep and cattle, and its v apparent, they are in desperate need of serious rain.
Passing thru a small town, 11am, on a weekday, there was a congregation of about 200 people, outside a large farm goods store. I assumed, there must be an auction etc, of farming vehicles - but, on asking, was told, it was a prayer meeting, dedicated to the rain gods.
I recall reading recently, about a small african country, setting aside a national day of prayer, dedicated to asking for the Good lord, to help the countries leaders, decide etc .. but, this seemed more devout.
I hope it helps .. but, a few hours later, the sun is still beating down.
Thursday 15 October 2015
Gambling by computer - Daily Fantasy Sports issues
Daily fantasy sports is IMHO, clearly gambling, thou its seems to have been largely accepted that specific provisions in the UIGEA (Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act) - created a loophole.
I say seems, as the UIGEA author, recently wrote a paper, countering this, as the UIGEA had no idea, DFS would grow so exponentially, over the last 2 yrs.
http://www.legalsportsreport.com/1369/uigea-author-did-not-intend-daily-fantasy-sports-carveout/
Something with a $150m advertising budget, and allows paid entries, competing for money-prizes, based on skill/luck, to me, has the all the attributes of gambling. (DraftKings, recently spent $24m in TV advertising, in one week).
Now, the USA is v sticky about computer gambling, and specifically, 5 states - Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana or Washington. prohibit it so strongly, both DraftKings and Fanduel, do not allow entries from residents of those states.
This has become an issue, as the DFS employee, who won $300k, on Fanduel, may have been in Louisiana, when he placed his entry - and that's a BIG problem.
DFS is growing so exponentially, it bares a lot of similarities to the Poker Boom, when, average players could pick up $100k a yr, for doing v little. This time round, I feel federal oversight will come far quicker .. and oddly, may help the cause for the legalisation of sports betting.
Amaya, (owner of Poker Stars), can now legally operate in the internet gambling market of New Jersey .. what this quite means, is a trifle unclear, but, I would expect to see Poker Stars available on computers again, to New Jersey residents, (and as Poker Stars has a sports book, its not a long reach, to see them offering odds etc).
As specific states, get revenue, others will want there share of the pie.
Amaya (traded on Toronto stock exchange, is currently $31, up from $25 a yr ago).
I think its probably a buy.
I say seems, as the UIGEA author, recently wrote a paper, countering this, as the UIGEA had no idea, DFS would grow so exponentially, over the last 2 yrs.
http://www.legalsportsreport.com/1369/uigea-author-did-not-intend-daily-fantasy-sports-carveout/
Something with a $150m advertising budget, and allows paid entries, competing for money-prizes, based on skill/luck, to me, has the all the attributes of gambling. (DraftKings, recently spent $24m in TV advertising, in one week).
Now, the USA is v sticky about computer gambling, and specifically, 5 states - Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana or Washington. prohibit it so strongly, both DraftKings and Fanduel, do not allow entries from residents of those states.
This has become an issue, as the DFS employee, who won $300k, on Fanduel, may have been in Louisiana, when he placed his entry - and that's a BIG problem.
DFS is growing so exponentially, it bares a lot of similarities to the Poker Boom, when, average players could pick up $100k a yr, for doing v little. This time round, I feel federal oversight will come far quicker .. and oddly, may help the cause for the legalisation of sports betting.
Amaya, (owner of Poker Stars), can now legally operate in the internet gambling market of New Jersey .. what this quite means, is a trifle unclear, but, I would expect to see Poker Stars available on computers again, to New Jersey residents, (and as Poker Stars has a sports book, its not a long reach, to see them offering odds etc).
As specific states, get revenue, others will want there share of the pie.
Amaya (traded on Toronto stock exchange, is currently $31, up from $25 a yr ago).
I think its probably a buy.
Monday 12 October 2015
The power of a Lemon ...
So, its Monday morning, am am mindlessly watching some Poker on Youtube.
On different monitors, I have the Test match mkts up .. (Tomorrow, Pak play Eng in Dubai), and am thinking about some bets.
For the uninformed, a test match is scheduled to last 5 days, and will result in either :
Team A win
Team B wins
Its a Draw (no-one wins)
Its a Tie .. (about a 3000/1 chance)
Cricket markets get a lot of liquidity from India, where, they are conditioned to having a position around the Draw. This causes it to be over-bet .. but, with new cricket laws/more aggressive play, there are currently less draws than the mkt thinks = Value to oppose.
Some stats :
Since the last cricket World Cup, there have been 23 tests .. for each, the Draw price normally starts about 3.25, but often trades below 2.0
4 have finished on Day 3
6 have finished on Day 4
5 have finished on Day 5
and there have been 5 draws .. so, the true probability is 5/23 or, close to 5.5 (9/2).
Present odds for the game tomorrow :
Pakistan 2.4
England 3.35
Draw 3.5
Some people would be laying 3.5 the Draw ...
Now for the lemon :
On the poker, there was a water-dispenser .. and there was a sign saying, dont put lemons in styrofoam cups.
The lemon contains limonene, better known as Citra-solv, and this will dissolve the syrofoam.
Its not hazardous to health, but, eventually, it will dissolve the cup, leaving u with a 'non-toxic' substance like model-airplane glue ..
See .. u learn something every-day.
On different monitors, I have the Test match mkts up .. (Tomorrow, Pak play Eng in Dubai), and am thinking about some bets.
For the uninformed, a test match is scheduled to last 5 days, and will result in either :
Team A win
Team B wins
Its a Draw (no-one wins)
Its a Tie .. (about a 3000/1 chance)
Cricket markets get a lot of liquidity from India, where, they are conditioned to having a position around the Draw. This causes it to be over-bet .. but, with new cricket laws/more aggressive play, there are currently less draws than the mkt thinks = Value to oppose.
Some stats :
Since the last cricket World Cup, there have been 23 tests .. for each, the Draw price normally starts about 3.25, but often trades below 2.0
4 have finished on Day 3
6 have finished on Day 4
5 have finished on Day 5
and there have been 5 draws .. so, the true probability is 5/23 or, close to 5.5 (9/2).
Present odds for the game tomorrow :
Pakistan 2.4
England 3.35
Draw 3.5
Some people would be laying 3.5 the Draw ...
Now for the lemon :
On the poker, there was a water-dispenser .. and there was a sign saying, dont put lemons in styrofoam cups.
The lemon contains limonene, better known as Citra-solv, and this will dissolve the syrofoam.
Its not hazardous to health, but, eventually, it will dissolve the cup, leaving u with a 'non-toxic' substance like model-airplane glue ..
See .. u learn something every-day.
Sunday 11 October 2015
Advantage Play
Las Vegas has a set name for 'Professional Gamblers' - or at least, those they think will give them the most trouble (profit wise).
The term is 'Advantage Players' .. in that, they provide a financial risk, to the casino, in that the player, probably knows more about the game, than many of the dealers/pit bosses.
Each year, Las Vegas hosts an expo, which exhibits new casino games, coming down the pipe, and "Ap's" naturally go along, for research purposes.
The display teams, are mainly ignorant salespeople, so, details are often hard to get,but, u can get an overview.
New games coming along, include slots, which are said to have a deal of skill, worked in.
Some slots, will rate the play of the slot player, and based upon the skill level exhibited (in holding certain reels etc .. will change how loose or tight, the slot machine is.
Ap's, clearly see a flaw in this .. u could play like a Muppet, on 1c stakes, for 2 days, and then, when the machine lifts its planned return, hit if for the max, with professional level play.
It is often said, a chain is as strong, as its weakest link .. and this is the problem, in large organisations, there is always a weak point, which can be targeted.
In Las Vegas, profit once largely came from the casino (90%+), but now, its largely an equal mix, of casino/night-club and hotel. As such, the casino hosts, have much less leeway, to comp guests.
The night-clubs are not cheap .. and the contents once inside, are .. to my mind, mindlessly expensive.
Recently, on someones 21st birthday, a young man decided to visit, and paid the $164 entry fee, but declined to pay $1000 to go into the VIP section. He was courted by the night-club, and asked if he wanted to upgrade, but, politely declined. He was asked, more than once, and declined.
A movie-star was in the VIP area, and oddly perhaps, asked to meet our hero. The youngster went to say hello, stayed, for maybe 5 mins, and returned to his seat. On sitting back down, he was told he was in the VIP area, and must now pay the $1000 cover charge. He declined.
Security was called, and they over-stepped (allegedly). Some punches may have been thrown, and our hero was handcuffed.
Once a senior manager got involved, it was clear, the night-club was in serious doo-do, and let him go.
A high-level Las Vegas lawyer, is now negotiating with the night-club. A settlement of a few hundred thousand dollars, is likely.
I repeat .. its hard to not have weak links. Look, and u will find them in most organisations .. exploit them, and u will be thinking like an AP.
The term is 'Advantage Players' .. in that, they provide a financial risk, to the casino, in that the player, probably knows more about the game, than many of the dealers/pit bosses.
Each year, Las Vegas hosts an expo, which exhibits new casino games, coming down the pipe, and "Ap's" naturally go along, for research purposes.
The display teams, are mainly ignorant salespeople, so, details are often hard to get,but, u can get an overview.
New games coming along, include slots, which are said to have a deal of skill, worked in.
Some slots, will rate the play of the slot player, and based upon the skill level exhibited (in holding certain reels etc .. will change how loose or tight, the slot machine is.
Ap's, clearly see a flaw in this .. u could play like a Muppet, on 1c stakes, for 2 days, and then, when the machine lifts its planned return, hit if for the max, with professional level play.
It is often said, a chain is as strong, as its weakest link .. and this is the problem, in large organisations, there is always a weak point, which can be targeted.
In Las Vegas, profit once largely came from the casino (90%+), but now, its largely an equal mix, of casino/night-club and hotel. As such, the casino hosts, have much less leeway, to comp guests.
The night-clubs are not cheap .. and the contents once inside, are .. to my mind, mindlessly expensive.
Recently, on someones 21st birthday, a young man decided to visit, and paid the $164 entry fee, but declined to pay $1000 to go into the VIP section. He was courted by the night-club, and asked if he wanted to upgrade, but, politely declined. He was asked, more than once, and declined.
A movie-star was in the VIP area, and oddly perhaps, asked to meet our hero. The youngster went to say hello, stayed, for maybe 5 mins, and returned to his seat. On sitting back down, he was told he was in the VIP area, and must now pay the $1000 cover charge. He declined.
Security was called, and they over-stepped (allegedly). Some punches may have been thrown, and our hero was handcuffed.
Once a senior manager got involved, it was clear, the night-club was in serious doo-do, and let him go.
A high-level Las Vegas lawyer, is now negotiating with the night-club. A settlement of a few hundred thousand dollars, is likely.
I repeat .. its hard to not have weak links. Look, and u will find them in most organisations .. exploit them, and u will be thinking like an AP.
Thursday 24 September 2015
Betfair etc
I am continually scratching my head with this company, for many reasons.
The website of Edward Murray - djsunset.com .. is a dark hole, that may or not, be spurious nonsense .. its a trifle hard to say, but, a lot of things Mr Murray is saying, looks clearly defamatory .. so, u wonder when the court case, is coming.
The calvinayre.com website, is reporting of an alleged Melbourne drug lord, laundering money thru the Betfair Australia arm (which was sold/disposed of .. a while ago .. so, maybe its not their problem).
This is on the back, of the million-to-one shot, of the Paddy Power / Betfair merger, which, I continue struggle to find good business sense of. This is clearly just me .. as the 'city' .. saw the news as positive, taking the Betfair share price, from +/- £26 .. to unheard of heights, of £32.
It sort of shows, either what a good job, the new CEO has done, or how under-valued it was, under previous heads.
For me, it seems to be less focused on being an exchange, and more focused on providing a mainstream bookmaker type service .. and that is both a shame, and maybe an opportunity, for others.
The website of Edward Murray - djsunset.com .. is a dark hole, that may or not, be spurious nonsense .. its a trifle hard to say, but, a lot of things Mr Murray is saying, looks clearly defamatory .. so, u wonder when the court case, is coming.
The calvinayre.com website, is reporting of an alleged Melbourne drug lord, laundering money thru the Betfair Australia arm (which was sold/disposed of .. a while ago .. so, maybe its not their problem).
This is on the back, of the million-to-one shot, of the Paddy Power / Betfair merger, which, I continue struggle to find good business sense of. This is clearly just me .. as the 'city' .. saw the news as positive, taking the Betfair share price, from +/- £26 .. to unheard of heights, of £32.
It sort of shows, either what a good job, the new CEO has done, or how under-valued it was, under previous heads.
For me, it seems to be less focused on being an exchange, and more focused on providing a mainstream bookmaker type service .. and that is both a shame, and maybe an opportunity, for others.
Tax issues of the rich and famous
In gambling, and definitely Irish gambling, J.P.McManus is a giant, who whilst I wouldn't say I have followed, remember documentaries about him, going back over 35 yrs.
JP began as a professional horse-race gambler, before being so successful, was able to diversify into forex trading/studs/other businesses - like buying and selling Man Utd -- a smart cookie, said to be worth over £500m.
He is known to be v generous, do a great deal for charity, and thou I have never met him, am sure hes got a lot of gamble.
In recent days, news of a £5.2m tax problem has emerged, where its believe he won $22m playing either backgammon or poker in 2012, and the losing party sent the IRS the $5.2, as withholding tax, not knowing Ireland has a tax agreement with the US. JP is non-resident in the US.
Professional gamblers in the UK and Ireland are largely exempt from tax (nice) - JP has to play a flat E200k a yr, under the domicile levy .. so, is doing nothing wrong, but, the IRS is dragging its feel in paying back the money.
So, its not the money .. but, it does make u wonder, how protected the IRS is, and how slow they can be. Also ..just how big, are some private poker games ?
Must be nice .. I hope he gets back-dated interest etc.
JP began as a professional horse-race gambler, before being so successful, was able to diversify into forex trading/studs/other businesses - like buying and selling Man Utd -- a smart cookie, said to be worth over £500m.
He is known to be v generous, do a great deal for charity, and thou I have never met him, am sure hes got a lot of gamble.
In recent days, news of a £5.2m tax problem has emerged, where its believe he won $22m playing either backgammon or poker in 2012, and the losing party sent the IRS the $5.2, as withholding tax, not knowing Ireland has a tax agreement with the US. JP is non-resident in the US.
Professional gamblers in the UK and Ireland are largely exempt from tax (nice) - JP has to play a flat E200k a yr, under the domicile levy .. so, is doing nothing wrong, but, the IRS is dragging its feel in paying back the money.
So, its not the money .. but, it does make u wonder, how protected the IRS is, and how slow they can be. Also ..just how big, are some private poker games ?
Must be nice .. I hope he gets back-dated interest etc.
EV (Expected Value) - of being a cat
I am back in the writing vein, as my house has now largely become a reality, and save for a few new walls being moved, (a mere bagatelle, in the scheme of things), I have been accumulating stuff to write about.
A few things were going to occupy this post .. with such interesting topics as the matchbook traders conference, life EV, my quest for 90 (always stimulating stuff), and various blogs/podcasts,mergers I was gonna take issue with.
That all changed, when I saw the happy state of 2 maine coon cats, we inherited from a previous owner, whose future husband was allergic.
They look chilled .. I suppose they should, they kip for 16-20 hrs a day, get their food served up on a plate, and only really bother to wake up, to destroy my furniture, and annoy the dogs.
I dont suppose they have a blog .. or have to worry about the arcane workings of the Uk betting markets ..
Where do we sign up ?
A few things were going to occupy this post .. with such interesting topics as the matchbook traders conference, life EV, my quest for 90 (always stimulating stuff), and various blogs/podcasts,mergers I was gonna take issue with.
That all changed, when I saw the happy state of 2 maine coon cats, we inherited from a previous owner, whose future husband was allergic.
They look chilled .. I suppose they should, they kip for 16-20 hrs a day, get their food served up on a plate, and only really bother to wake up, to destroy my furniture, and annoy the dogs.
I dont suppose they have a blog .. or have to worry about the arcane workings of the Uk betting markets ..
Where do we sign up ?
Monday 21 September 2015
Rugby World Cup - 2015
Historically, bookmakers have normally found Rugby a very hard sport to beat ..
This may be because 15 men, who are committed/fit etc, can fairly easily balance the effects of a team member under-performing.
The World Cup is a long competition, and to win, more than anything else, u need a v strong squad - not just a great starting 15. Players get injured - tired - etc .. so, countries with depth, will overcome.
As injuries can be such a factor - its a theory, that once a team has 'won' its first/second match, it will ease off - either physically or mentally, in the last 10 mins.
Maybe becos of this, in the last World Cup, all 8 underdogs 'on handicap' managed to win their games .. for example, if Japan were 40 points underdog, they managed to lose by less than 40.
So far, of the 8 games played .. 6 underdogs, managed to win on handicap - and its noticeable, the gap between the historically great rugby nations, and the also-rans, is narrowing.
So far, I havent been that impressed by any team, thou I have little doubt, if New Zealand manage to keep 15 players on the field, they will go v close to winning. At 2.24, it cant be a bet.
I have a little on Ireland at 12/1 .. and have laid S.Africa for maximum. The coach looks nervous, and rightly so - his head looks bang on the chopping block, after Japan at 300/1+, managed a well deserved win.
This may be because 15 men, who are committed/fit etc, can fairly easily balance the effects of a team member under-performing.
The World Cup is a long competition, and to win, more than anything else, u need a v strong squad - not just a great starting 15. Players get injured - tired - etc .. so, countries with depth, will overcome.
As injuries can be such a factor - its a theory, that once a team has 'won' its first/second match, it will ease off - either physically or mentally, in the last 10 mins.
Maybe becos of this, in the last World Cup, all 8 underdogs 'on handicap' managed to win their games .. for example, if Japan were 40 points underdog, they managed to lose by less than 40.
So far, of the 8 games played .. 6 underdogs, managed to win on handicap - and its noticeable, the gap between the historically great rugby nations, and the also-rans, is narrowing.
So far, I havent been that impressed by any team, thou I have little doubt, if New Zealand manage to keep 15 players on the field, they will go v close to winning. At 2.24, it cant be a bet.
I have a little on Ireland at 12/1 .. and have laid S.Africa for maximum. The coach looks nervous, and rightly so - his head looks bang on the chopping block, after Japan at 300/1+, managed a well deserved win.
Monday 7 September 2015
10 Green Bottles
The nice thing about sport, is that it reminds u of stuff.
Its also a way of keeping track of time .. I cant believe England last toured S.Africa in 2010/11 .. gee time flies. They are due to tour again, at the end of the yr.
I have fond memories of the games, and the Barmy Amy, singing many songs.
One song, which was used to wind-up the locals, was a theme of 10 green bottles, based upon the weakness of the local currency - the Rand.
In 2010, the song started at ..
We get 1 Rand to the pound, we get 1 rand to the pound, etc etc
and seemingly, 15 minutes later, they finished on
We get 12 rand to the pound , We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound !!
with a special finish of :
Its so cheap, its unbelievable !!
well, 5 yrs on .. things have changed a bit.
U now get 21 Rand to the £ .. the song will take 35 minutes ..
S.Africa has become ridiculously cheap, for foreigners .. a 5 star hotel can cost £110, a bottle of beer - well its cheap.
For 6 bottles, its R55 or -- £2.70..
I think some holiday makers, will have some v sore heads.
Its also a way of keeping track of time .. I cant believe England last toured S.Africa in 2010/11 .. gee time flies. They are due to tour again, at the end of the yr.
I have fond memories of the games, and the Barmy Amy, singing many songs.
One song, which was used to wind-up the locals, was a theme of 10 green bottles, based upon the weakness of the local currency - the Rand.
In 2010, the song started at ..
We get 1 Rand to the pound, we get 1 rand to the pound, etc etc
and seemingly, 15 minutes later, they finished on
We get 12 rand to the pound , We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound !!
with a special finish of :
Its so cheap, its unbelievable !!
well, 5 yrs on .. things have changed a bit.
U now get 21 Rand to the £ .. the song will take 35 minutes ..
S.Africa has become ridiculously cheap, for foreigners .. a 5 star hotel can cost £110, a bottle of beer - well its cheap.
I think some holiday makers, will have some v sore heads.
Monday 17 August 2015
An eventful trip, from Birmingham to Heathrow
So, I had a flight from Heathrow, and needed a convenient way to get there :
Althou the coach can take up to 3 hrs, for a 2 hr journey, its normally harmless, so, booked a seat :
This is a copy of what happened :
I had a pre-booked seat, FFFNHB62 on 12/8/15, at 13.45, Birmingham-Heathrow.
At the coach station, the coach was called 10 mins before departure, and the waiting passengers, all loaded.
It seemed many passengers had multiple bags, and a 5 or 6 man band, had a few guitar boxes, which also added to the stowage.
We left Digbeth at 1.45, and reached Birmingham International, at approx, 2.15.
On Arrival, it appeared there were at least 8 passengers attempting to board, and, there was no apparent space for the luggage.
The coach driver, addressed the seated passengers, and said there would be a delay, while a mini-bus was called, to carry the extra luggage.
All passengers waited on the bus, which wasn't comfortable, as the bus was switched off, and there was little Fresh air.
After 30 mins, I looked outside, and the coach driver was in a heated argument with a burly male passenger, who was waiting to board. The driver expressed the opinion, people should be complaining to the call centre, who had over-booked the coach. (I am not sure why, the new passengers were not allowed to sit on the bus - but, with the lack of air, maybe it was a fair choice).
A few mins later, I left my seat, and really not trying to be combative, just asked the driver, if he had any details as to the extent of the delay. He said, he would not call the call centre, and had no idea.
Now I can understand the luggage issue, but, don't comprehend why he couldn't give an approx time of delay etc. All passengers were attempting to catch flights .. I had some leeway, and wanted info to base a decision as to what to do, should the delay, drag on.
The band members were sitting opposite me, and they had a flight leaving at 6.40 pm, which, I thought it unlikely they were going to make, as the coach was apparently due to stop at Coventry, before the Heathrow terminals. One band-member, tried to call the help line for National Express, but, was re-directed from the website, to another number, as the one he dialled was apparently out-of-service. In the end, he gave up, trying to call.
Other passengers were starting to ask questions, but, the coach driver just ignored us.
At 3.pm, a delay of 45 mins with no information, I collected my laptop, and left the bus. I asked the driver to open the luggage hold, and he said he wouldn't help me unload the luggage. Fortunately, I had seen where my luggage was loaded, and being near the front, felt I could move my 2 pieces .
The driver would not open the hold. I asked him to open it, or I would call the police. He opened it, stayed in his driver seat, and I got my bags.
I then re-boarded the bus, and asked him for his name. He refused to give it, so, took a picture of both him hiding in his seat, and the bus registration.
He said, "have a nice flight".
(( I dont really know why he was so sour towards me. I was just asking polite questions. The coach driver never swore at me, or raised his voice, or acted threateningly - just seemed to contemplate his life - which I suspect, is generally no fun, dealing with members of the Public.))
I went to TOA taxi, and negotiated a £190 charge, from Bham international to Terminal 5.
I made my flight, and had some time to tweet some comments, but, my data allowance ran out, before I could do much.
After reaching my international destination, I am not going to let this just rest. The Twitter account of #nationalexpress informed me, no compensation is payable for a 45 minute delay. Having had some time to look etc, I am not sure this is totally accurate.
I have looked up EU regulations, and it is the duty of the carrier to inform the passengers, of travel info, both before and during the journey.
It seems reasonable, that in a delayed journey, the passengers are kept informed etc - especially when the coach destination is to an airport.
If he had just been civil, taken a deep breath, and communicated to his passengers, the problem and how it was being-solved, and the time-frame,I may have come to a different decision.
As I was leaving the airport, I saw a mini-bus arrive, so, presume they were on their way, after about a 50-55 minute delay (providing the argument with the burly new passenger had been sorted). I didn't stay to see the mini-van drive off, or any discussions with the new passengers.
I expect more passengers missed their flight. Clearly, the driver was under pressure, but, he let it get to him. I don't see why I should suffer, and will obviously give National Express a chance to comment, but, if I am not satisfied, will take this to the small claims court (when I am back in the UK)
Once overseas, I had some further issues with data on my cellphone, and the nationalexpress twitter account, suggested I direct message them, and someone would contact me. The twiiter account of National Express has been v helpful, which reflects well on the conmpany, but, the bottom libe, is I paid £23 for a coach ticket, which I was unable to use, and paid £190 for a taxi, for fear of missing my flight.
Althou the coach can take up to 3 hrs, for a 2 hr journey, its normally harmless, so, booked a seat :
This is a copy of what happened :
I had a pre-booked seat, FFFNHB62 on 12/8/15, at 13.45, Birmingham-Heathrow.
At the coach station, the coach was called 10 mins before departure, and the waiting passengers, all loaded.
It seemed many passengers had multiple bags, and a 5 or 6 man band, had a few guitar boxes, which also added to the stowage.
We left Digbeth at 1.45, and reached Birmingham International, at approx, 2.15.
On Arrival, it appeared there were at least 8 passengers attempting to board, and, there was no apparent space for the luggage.
The coach driver, addressed the seated passengers, and said there would be a delay, while a mini-bus was called, to carry the extra luggage.
All passengers waited on the bus, which wasn't comfortable, as the bus was switched off, and there was little Fresh air.
After 30 mins, I looked outside, and the coach driver was in a heated argument with a burly male passenger, who was waiting to board. The driver expressed the opinion, people should be complaining to the call centre, who had over-booked the coach. (I am not sure why, the new passengers were not allowed to sit on the bus - but, with the lack of air, maybe it was a fair choice).
A few mins later, I left my seat, and really not trying to be combative, just asked the driver, if he had any details as to the extent of the delay. He said, he would not call the call centre, and had no idea.
Now I can understand the luggage issue, but, don't comprehend why he couldn't give an approx time of delay etc. All passengers were attempting to catch flights .. I had some leeway, and wanted info to base a decision as to what to do, should the delay, drag on.
The band members were sitting opposite me, and they had a flight leaving at 6.40 pm, which, I thought it unlikely they were going to make, as the coach was apparently due to stop at Coventry, before the Heathrow terminals. One band-member, tried to call the help line for National Express, but, was re-directed from the website, to another number, as the one he dialled was apparently out-of-service. In the end, he gave up, trying to call.
Other passengers were starting to ask questions, but, the coach driver just ignored us.
At 3.pm, a delay of 45 mins with no information, I collected my laptop, and left the bus. I asked the driver to open the luggage hold, and he said he wouldn't help me unload the luggage. Fortunately, I had seen where my luggage was loaded, and being near the front, felt I could move my 2 pieces .
The driver would not open the hold. I asked him to open it, or I would call the police. He opened it, stayed in his driver seat, and I got my bags.
I then re-boarded the bus, and asked him for his name. He refused to give it, so, took a picture of both him hiding in his seat, and the bus registration.
He said, "have a nice flight".
(( I dont really know why he was so sour towards me. I was just asking polite questions. The coach driver never swore at me, or raised his voice, or acted threateningly - just seemed to contemplate his life - which I suspect, is generally no fun, dealing with members of the Public.))
I went to TOA taxi, and negotiated a £190 charge, from Bham international to Terminal 5.
I made my flight, and had some time to tweet some comments, but, my data allowance ran out, before I could do much.
After reaching my international destination, I am not going to let this just rest. The Twitter account of #nationalexpress informed me, no compensation is payable for a 45 minute delay. Having had some time to look etc, I am not sure this is totally accurate.
I have looked up EU regulations, and it is the duty of the carrier to inform the passengers, of travel info, both before and during the journey.
It seems reasonable, that in a delayed journey, the passengers are kept informed etc - especially when the coach destination is to an airport.
If he had just been civil, taken a deep breath, and communicated to his passengers, the problem and how it was being-solved, and the time-frame,I may have come to a different decision.
As I was leaving the airport, I saw a mini-bus arrive, so, presume they were on their way, after about a 50-55 minute delay (providing the argument with the burly new passenger had been sorted). I didn't stay to see the mini-van drive off, or any discussions with the new passengers.
I expect more passengers missed their flight. Clearly, the driver was under pressure, but, he let it get to him. I don't see why I should suffer, and will obviously give National Express a chance to comment, but, if I am not satisfied, will take this to the small claims court (when I am back in the UK)
Once overseas, I had some further issues with data on my cellphone, and the nationalexpress twitter account, suggested I direct message them, and someone would contact me. The twiiter account of National Express has been v helpful, which reflects well on the conmpany, but, the bottom libe, is I paid £23 for a coach ticket, which I was unable to use, and paid £190 for a taxi, for fear of missing my flight.
Monday 10 August 2015
Womens Ashes - Test at Canterbury
The female Ashes series has gotton a lot of media coverage, with attendances and TV viewers being roundly sought after.
I attended the One Day game at Worcester, and it seemed pretty clear to me, Australia have a very solid top/middle order, which England never looked like breaking down.
On the eve of the game, most bookies bet, something like :
Eng 3.4
Australia 2.6
Draw 2.8
Its only a 4 day game, so, the draw has a decent chance. I would have England, much bigger, and although the markets are v small, have a position against England.
///
Aus win the toss and bat.
Overcast, so, do respect the draw, but, cant fathom how England are gonna take 20 wickets, so, have laid max Eng at 3.75 avg.
//
Aus 54-0 after 16 overs ;
Eng 8.00
Australia 2.7
Draw 1.94
Nice to look at a green book, after last week.
//
This is going pear .. from 80-2 at Lunch, Shrubsole has bowled really well, and Aussies look in a fair amount of trouble, at 97-4.
Eng 2.6
Aus 3.2
Draw 3.0
Have laid more Eng.
//
100-5 and Eng touch 1.90 .. laid more, so, my overall avg is now 2,7
Will try to reduce liability, if it gets back there.
//
Aus 126-5
Eng 2.70
Aus 3.5
Draw 2.80
///
COP Aus 268-8 .. which is a v fair effort, given they were 100-5.
Current prices, (with weather forecast generally improving)
Eng 4.4
Aus 2.4
Draw 2.80
Now comes the traders dilema. I can bank a profit, (which usually is a reasonable option, and even feel, 4.5 or so on Eng, is about right - but, still cant pull the trigger).
I am genuinely surprised, Lanning and Perry scored so few runs, and have to believe, they will be better in the 2nd dig.
If I had no previous position on this game, I would lay the draw .. but, have a fair amount of travel in the next few days, making weather watching tricky, so, I will probably just leave my position as is.
//
Day 2 - and some nasty rain, came from almost no-where. Delayed start, to about 12.30, but, time can be made up .. might lose 8 overs today.
I attended the One Day game at Worcester, and it seemed pretty clear to me, Australia have a very solid top/middle order, which England never looked like breaking down.
On the eve of the game, most bookies bet, something like :
Eng 3.4
Australia 2.6
Draw 2.8
Its only a 4 day game, so, the draw has a decent chance. I would have England, much bigger, and although the markets are v small, have a position against England.
///
Aus win the toss and bat.
Overcast, so, do respect the draw, but, cant fathom how England are gonna take 20 wickets, so, have laid max Eng at 3.75 avg.
//
Aus 54-0 after 16 overs ;
Eng 8.00
Australia 2.7
Draw 1.94
Nice to look at a green book, after last week.
//
This is going pear .. from 80-2 at Lunch, Shrubsole has bowled really well, and Aussies look in a fair amount of trouble, at 97-4.
Eng 2.6
Aus 3.2
Draw 3.0
Have laid more Eng.
//
100-5 and Eng touch 1.90 .. laid more, so, my overall avg is now 2,7
Will try to reduce liability, if it gets back there.
//
Aus 126-5
Eng 2.70
Aus 3.5
Draw 2.80
///
COP Aus 268-8 .. which is a v fair effort, given they were 100-5.
Current prices, (with weather forecast generally improving)
Eng 4.4
Aus 2.4
Draw 2.80
Now comes the traders dilema. I can bank a profit, (which usually is a reasonable option, and even feel, 4.5 or so on Eng, is about right - but, still cant pull the trigger).
I am genuinely surprised, Lanning and Perry scored so few runs, and have to believe, they will be better in the 2nd dig.
If I had no previous position on this game, I would lay the draw .. but, have a fair amount of travel in the next few days, making weather watching tricky, so, I will probably just leave my position as is.
//
Day 2 - and some nasty rain, came from almost no-where. Delayed start, to about 12.30, but, time can be made up .. might lose 8 overs today.
Wednesday 5 August 2015
4th Ashes Test - Trent bridge
I may do a blog on this test, even thou, I cant watch much of days 1 and 2.
On the eve of the game, they now bet :
England 3.2
Australia 2.08
Draw 4.6
Over the last week, the draw has been the really weak link - maybe the groundsman is worried he produced such a poor pitch for the England v India game last yr, that, hes determined this will have more life.
The weather forecast is better, but, I still cant have England this short, and have a big position against them, going in.
///
Aus lose the toss, and Eng decide to bowl, on what did look to be a green-top.
At start of play :
England 3.0
Australia 2.12
Draw 5.1
//
Australia lose 3 wickets, inside the first 2 overs :
England 1.58
Australia 3.75
Draw 9.6
//
Going for a long walk ..
//
Done a few laps, and booked the loss at the end of the day .. U could argue, I should have bailed, once they lost the toss, and were put in .. but, thats gambling.
On the eve of the game, they now bet :
England 3.2
Australia 2.08
Draw 4.6
Over the last week, the draw has been the really weak link - maybe the groundsman is worried he produced such a poor pitch for the England v India game last yr, that, hes determined this will have more life.
The weather forecast is better, but, I still cant have England this short, and have a big position against them, going in.
///
Aus lose the toss, and Eng decide to bowl, on what did look to be a green-top.
At start of play :
England 3.0
Australia 2.12
Draw 5.1
//
Australia lose 3 wickets, inside the first 2 overs :
England 1.58
Australia 3.75
Draw 9.6
//
Going for a long walk ..
//
Done a few laps, and booked the loss at the end of the day .. U could argue, I should have bailed, once they lost the toss, and were put in .. but, thats gambling.
Saturday 1 August 2015
England 2 - Australia 1
3 games in, and although I did get to watch a lot of game 3, I must confess to being a little jaded with the contest.
England and Australia both have serious weak links, and it was always a question, of which link would prove most vital.
Having won the Edgbaston test, in 2 and a half days, losing Jimmy Anderson may prove to be the pivotal point of the contest.
Initial compilers, priced game 4 as :
England 3.2
Australia 2.4
Draw 3.7
At these odds, I have Eng a max lay .. win or lose, they cannot start that price - I would have them seriously bigger than 4.3 - and have laid with gusto.
England and Australia both have serious weak links, and it was always a question, of which link would prove most vital.
Having won the Edgbaston test, in 2 and a half days, losing Jimmy Anderson may prove to be the pivotal point of the contest.
Initial compilers, priced game 4 as :
England 3.2
Australia 2.4
Draw 3.7
At these odds, I have Eng a max lay .. win or lose, they cannot start that price - I would have them seriously bigger than 4.3 - and have laid with gusto.
Wednesday 15 July 2015
144th Open - St Andrews
Having almost got close to going to the Masters last yr (as a spectator/patron) .. my golf game isn't quite that good - I had the chance to wander round St Andrews, during the week when the open is being played.
Driving to the course, its v well signposted .. and u get funnelled to a park n ride, with buses operating v frequently, which drop u off outside the entrance.
As u can see .. entrance money is not cheap - even £25 for the practice days - and having reached the course at 5pm or so, just wanted to have a quick look round (the last bus going back, is at 7.30), so, really had little time.
The 3 ticket booths were not manned .. so, when going to the security area, when asked for my ticket, I clearly hadn't got one.
The security guy, said I couldn't come in !!
Ok, maybe he was doing his job, but, this cant be right. I wanted to pay - etc.
I asked he call his boss etc, and, v quickly, a compromise was established, where I would be escorted to the merchandising area, (free of charge), and then, my escort would lose me.
This was both good and bad. I couldn't fault the service, but, spent £700 on various shorts/caps etc .. I would have spent more, but the Ralph Lauren Golf jacket, all had v poor zips .. and for £160, it just was too much.
UPS are a sponsor - and have a concession outside the merchandise hall, where they will ship your goods. I had a 10kg box, which cost £15 .. hardly a bad deal .. and hope it gets home (overseas), ok.
On leaving the credit card killing zone, there is a Bobby Jones exhibit .. which I briefly looked around .. one of my favourite films, is The Legend of Bagger Vance - which I never knew, is played on a golf course, quite near the Masters - but, anyway - its about one of Bobby Jones' last rounds of gold, and its a v good film.
Anyway, after this, went out onto the course - free wifi - and was able to watch Tiger Woods, play 3 holes in a practice round, with Gary Woodland/Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner .. which was all good.
The course is amazing .. I have to try come back, and play one day - even thou the bunkers, look a serious challenge.
I would have to rate the experience 10/10 ..
Driving to the course, its v well signposted .. and u get funnelled to a park n ride, with buses operating v frequently, which drop u off outside the entrance.
As u can see .. entrance money is not cheap - even £25 for the practice days - and having reached the course at 5pm or so, just wanted to have a quick look round (the last bus going back, is at 7.30), so, really had little time.
The 3 ticket booths were not manned .. so, when going to the security area, when asked for my ticket, I clearly hadn't got one.
The security guy, said I couldn't come in !!
Ok, maybe he was doing his job, but, this cant be right. I wanted to pay - etc.
I asked he call his boss etc, and, v quickly, a compromise was established, where I would be escorted to the merchandising area, (free of charge), and then, my escort would lose me.
This was both good and bad. I couldn't fault the service, but, spent £700 on various shorts/caps etc .. I would have spent more, but the Ralph Lauren Golf jacket, all had v poor zips .. and for £160, it just was too much.
UPS are a sponsor - and have a concession outside the merchandise hall, where they will ship your goods. I had a 10kg box, which cost £15 .. hardly a bad deal .. and hope it gets home (overseas), ok.
On leaving the credit card killing zone, there is a Bobby Jones exhibit .. which I briefly looked around .. one of my favourite films, is The Legend of Bagger Vance - which I never knew, is played on a golf course, quite near the Masters - but, anyway - its about one of Bobby Jones' last rounds of gold, and its a v good film.
Anyway, after this, went out onto the course - free wifi - and was able to watch Tiger Woods, play 3 holes in a practice round, with Gary Woodland/Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner .. which was all good.
The course is amazing .. I have to try come back, and play one day - even thou the bunkers, look a serious challenge.
I would have to rate the experience 10/10 ..
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